The Chart

This chart has been floating around the Internet for some time but it is so amazing that it's worth sharing. What brought it up was some mind numbingly stupid comment by George Stupidnopolis on ABC. Apparently Obama's 2011 wildly high budget deficit is George W. Bush's fault.



I am not in the business of defending Bush's spending. He had a complimentary Republican Congress through 2006 and frankly many on the right were dismayed by the profligate spending by so-called fiscal conservatives. But just looking at the chart it becomes clear that #1.) the 2001-2003 tax cuts did not balloon the deficit. In fact the deficit was in a downward trajectory until 2007 and #2.) something changed in 2007.

Obviously the Congress changed hands in 2007. The Democrats - Nancy Pelosi -took over. Until TARP was passed in late 2008 the deficit was seemingly manageable. TARP was dismaying, but it has been deemed successful by almost any measure since most of the money has been paid back. Only AIG's share and Obama's bailout of GM and Chrysler have yet to be paid back - but then the government owns a substantial share of GM and AIG.

So what really went wrong?

Start with 800 billion in ineffective stimulus and add a shaky economy and presto a trillion dollar deficit as far as the eye can see. This recession was primarily a result of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown with its many villains spanning government and the financial industry. As deep and profound as this crisis was we should be seeing light at the end of the tunnel but we're not. Why? Well, the Obama administration doesn't leave an encouraging taste in anyone's mouth. Business is wringing every ounce of production out of their current employees (just glad to have a job) and racking up profit and fat bank accounts. Until business is comfortable there will be no hiring. Revenue to the government will continue to stagnate, social spending will escalate and the deficit will grow.

We have to get these guys out of the White House in 2012.


CW

Political Correctness Distilled

For some reason I find the subject of Political Correctness fascinating. I guess I'm not the only one. Bruce Charlton, a professor at University of Buckingham, UK, authors a teaching blog called Bruce Charlton's Miscellany that delves deeply into the subject. Lately he published an interesting digest of what Political Correctness (or Post Christian, if you will) really is. I want convey the way I see it - my comments in red.

For PC the ultimate evil is selfishness - therefore the highest good it can conceive is unselfishness: i.e. altruism.

This worldly altruism is operationalized in terms of the allocation of 'goods' (money, power, status etc).

But PC sees humans as innately selfish - therefor the allocation of goods must be done impersonally - in practice, by rules and bureaucracies.

The organizational enforcement of Political Correctness is primarily through government and NGO bureaucracies because they are normally faceless non-individuals. However, the PC attitude is practiced in nearly all organizations to prevent any possibility of public shaming. In order to be spared the PC wrath most organizations and individuals simply play along. Any that stand against conventional PCism suffer a robotic and unrelenting attack. A good example of a specific organization under PC assault is the Boy Scouts of America. Or, of course, the Republican Party in general.

*

What governs the principles of PC? Reaction, rejection. The past is tainted. There must be a fresh start. The good is the opposite of what people used to believe. Hence moral inversion.

This is the core of PCism. To color traditions as backward and invalid is the PC way. In Western cultures Christianity in particular must be invalidated. We see the ultra toleration of Islam, an intolerant religion, and the routine intoleration of Christianity's mores, symbols and holidays by the media and by secular institutions. By extension traditional American values of individualism and the ownership of private property must be denigrated at every turn.


The fact that all this is anti-spontaneous, anti-natural, alien, scary - is actually taken as a sign of its virtuousness. The truly altruistic must sacrifice themselves.

The mass media is essential to this since it fills our minds everyday, continually displacing the past - so whatever is in the mass media is reality.

The mass media and the education cabal has attempted to rewrite much of Western history. For the incurious and self absorbed what they see on TV is truth, history is unimportant and passe. Even when history is presented factually the modern sheen of PCism is applied to the motives and actions of historical figures in order to discredit them as self serving misogynists.

*
Atheism leads to this-worldliness, and to relativism, and to the working rule that the inversion of the traditional is virtuous.

Reinforcement for this tendency comes from population growth, meritocracy, division of labour, prosperity and the mass media.

Unlimited mass immigration then favouring immigrants over natives, damaging economic productivity by taking from the productive and giving to the unproductive (in order to generate dependency), enforcing laws with zero-tolerance against the well-behaved while being soft on bad people, foreign policy which attacks allies and builds up enemies, attacking normal sexuality and the family and allocating status to everything else - all the usual stuff.

The fact that we see this everyday has made us numb to its insidiousness. A traditional family of a mother, a father and few children is often treated as odd in popular culture, where the father is either enslaving his wife and damaging his children or he is completely and utterly inept (except the Huxtables, of course). Whereas racially blended or homosexual families are enlightened and rightous, beyond reproach.

It has gotten to the point where the truth is skirted, often on critical issues, because it is impolitic to actually verbalize plain facts. A study that concludes based on the facts that black men commit more crime will not get cited except in the most obscure journals. A incident that involves Islamic terrorism is couched in conciliatory or apologetic language regardless of how egregious the act. Celebrities, CEO's and politicians are shunned and even forced to resign if they stray by speaking of obvious truths. Clumsiness is not a sin.

PCism has become entrenched and immovable. It is the very reasonableness of human nature to not want to offend unnecessarily that gives political correctness surface validation. The problem comes when reasonableness crosses the line into unreasonableness. When the power of government policy or law enforcement (like hate crimes) is applied based on political correctness and not objective facts we are all a little less free. Piece by piece, issue by issue PCism destroys freedom. In the end PCism is enslaving, and inhuman. Until we systematically and forcefully reject it we will continue to lose individual freedom.



CW

Which will blow first? Yellowstone or the Treasury

We are all aware that popular culture has a small obsession with the year 2012. According to the ancient Mayan calendar either the world (or the Mayan calendar) will end on December 21st 2012. Well, count me as skeptical that some coincidental alignment of the stars will blow the world apart. However, 2012 could see the world as we know it change beyond all recognition as a result of two looming cauldrons of disaster bubbling to the surface of our lives.

I read somewhere that the cauldron of the super massive volcano that is Yellowstone literally raised by 10 inches recently. This is a land surface of many, many square miles - spontaneously raising 10 inches!

There has been increased volcanic and earthquake activity around Yellowstone recently. They say that evidence points to a massive eruption every 500,000 years or so. It's been more than 600,000 years since the last one. If it blows life as we know it here in America will end. The whole world would be affected, possibly causing mass extinctions and the death of millions upon millions. This is a truly frightening prospect.

There is another disaster that could also cause life as we know it to end. That would be the default of the United States Treasury. Some believe this would be literally impossible, but it will get to the point where the interest alone on the national debt can not be paid. Simply "printing" money won't fix it if the value of the dollar is zero. If the U.S. defaults the economy would grind to a halt. The world economy will crash. Human suffering would be unlike anything we've ever seen. The real scary part is as we are driving off the cliff we are accelerating. America collectively stomped on the gas pedal by choosing the Obama regime.

Obama aside, does anyone really believe that politicians have the answers or more importantly the courage to set things right? Not me.



CW

Belly Up

The state of Illinois is flat broke. So is California. There are in fact half a dozen states close to the edge. All the states except North Dakota are bleeding red ink. It's so bad that some in Congress are writing up legislation to allow states to declare bankruptcy.

The state of Illinois owes creditors 6 billion dollars. The state comptroller in Feb 2011 is paying the bills for Aug 2010. Drivers of state vehicles are seeing their state issued credit cards being rejected when they try to fill up the gas tank. Everyone is tired of not getting paid. No one want's to do business with Illinois. The legislature in Springfield believes the solution is raising tax rates. A huge tax rate increase for individuals and businesses that recently passed has neighboring states salivating. Wisconsin is aggressively wooing businesses to hop the border and enjoy lower taxes and a shiny new business friendly climate.

California is most likely the reason DC legislatures are crafting a bill to legalize bankruptcy for states. The state is billions in debt and there's no light at the end of the tunnel. Is it somehow poetic justice that the man most responsible for the decline of the Golden State is now faced with the carnage his policies have wrought? Is Gov. Jerry Brown at least a bit humbled by what he found oh so many years later? Possibly. California's suffering in the current economy is exponentially greater than almost every other state. The housing bubble hit the state especially hard. Public services for illegal aliens are a massive drag, but it is the state pension system that is killing California. Bankruptcy would allow the state a way out of the pension nightmare.

America basically has it's own Greece in California. Except that instead of a small minor economic power California has an economy the size of Italy. If California gets a Federal bailout then watch the floodgates open wide. The Cloward/Piven Strategy to overwhelm the government with social obligations will be complete.

One has to wonder if what's happened to America was the inevitable result of blind fate or of cynical manipulation. Probably both. A true unplanned capitalist free market society is equally as impossible as a successful totalitarian communist society. American capitalists see a billion consumers in China and a billion more in the neighborhood. With visions of cheap labor and selling product dancing in their heads coupled with encouragement from the governments in DC and Beijing a massive jobs migration was inevitable. So far the reality of an enormous consumer driven middle class in China has failed to materialize. Maybe it will someday...

In the meantime American's are losing their jobs and the government is forced to borrow billions from China to pay pension and unemployment benefits. Seems crazy, but what do I know?

In a catch 22 situation we realize that a growing, robust American economy would help fill both state and federal coffers, but that's not going to happen if the jobs keep going overseas while the government squeezes the remaining producer class even harder. The current paradigm is unsustainable. How long before the whole thing goes belly up?



CW

2012 Disaster? The China Bubble

For years we have been hearing two tales about China. The obvious one that China will overtake the U.S. as the dominant economy on the planet and eventually even hold the world' s default currency. Not to mention China's expanding military and its ambitious goals to lead in space exploration among other likely conquests. Who's to stop it? The other tale is the specter of the grand daddy of all "bubbles".

If you have been listening and reading you will have seen the occasional China bubble story. While it seems impossible in the back of your mind you wonder to yourself what will it mean to me...

I've relied on one of my favorite bloggers for specific information, that would be Al Fin of http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/. While I find Al Fin extremely credible it doesn't hurt to see evidence in main stream publications. Take a minute to read this article in The Times of London called "Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting".

FTA
We think we’ve experienced credit bubbles over the past few years, but China is the biggest. And yet the global economy is looking to China as not just a crutch but a springboard out of the recession. It’s crazy.”


He is not alone. Hugh Hendry, a former star of Odey Asset Management, has launched a distressed China fund at Eclectica Asset Management.


He follows Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors, the American hedge fund manager who made millions of dollars predicting both the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, who started a fund based on the belief that rather than being the “key engine for global growth”, China is an “enormous tail-risk”.


There have been academics and analysts who have argued about the dangers of China’s economy overheating for some time. But for many, the fact that hedge funds, particularly those with track records on previous crises, are launching specific funds is the sign that the bubble is close to bursting.


One academic said: “Economists have contrarian views all the time. But these hedge funds have their shirts on the line and do their analysis carefully. The flurry of 'distress China’ funds is a sign to sit up.”


More analysts are becoming bearish too. Last week, Lombard Street Research put out a note warning of China’s “already dangerously home-grown inflation”.


The analysts said figures showing the continuing boom in China were far from welcome: “On the contrary, Chinese policymakers have to slam on the brakes.” The financiers are warning that rather than depending on China as the prop of the recovery plan, Britain needs to be braced for another shock.
END QUOTE


The housing bubble in The U.S. and to some degree in Europe has caused a near global economic meltdown. It's hard to say what havoc the bursting of the China bubble will do. Nothing good I'm sure.

If one thinks about it the very fact that China became an economic powerhouse is intrinsically tied to the American housing bubble. Through the 80's and 90's technology, computers, the Internet and the digital device revolution helped keep the U.S. economy afloat. First it was the manufacturing of the devices and later, when the manufacturing went overseas, the servicing of the technology culminating in the Y2K economic boom. Thereafter it was the housing market and the wildly inflating real estate prices forged by bad government policy and ridiculously low interest rates that fed the economy the equity capital that would float the economy for a few more years. All the while the jobs flooded out of the U.S. and into China with the blessing of the multi-nationals as well as the Federal government. U.S. consumers flush with all that home equity money bought a lot of Chinese manufactured goods.

Let the good times roll, right?

Where does that leave us now. Well, does a sustained (official) unemployment rate of nearly 10% ring a bell? Does record bank foreclosures sound familiar? Do bankrupt state governments and multi-trillion dollar Federal deficits come to mind? Bad, yes, all bad, but thank God we have cheap Chinese imports at WalMart!!!

If the Chinese bubble bursts we could actually see shortages of some basic supplies since they are not made here anymore, but that would be the least of our worries. Many companies would be hurt and it could cascade into more job losses here, maybe even enough to send us into a deep recession or even a global depression.

No one really knows what might happen. These hedge fund managers, some of whom were ringing the warning bells about the U.S. housing bubble, will point out the canaries in the coal mine for us - we should listen this time.


CW

REVIEW: Decision Points

Decision Points is George W. Bush's memoir. In it he highlights major decisions he faced as President. It is not a chronological look at his two terms in office. His was a consequential presidency on many levels, good and bad and I suspect this format served him well as he recounted his days in the White House.

Overall I didn't find anything revelatory in the book. Most of the subjects and his positions on them were well known and were endlessly hashed out in the public discourse at the time. This to me was a little disappointing. I had hoped for more, I guess.

There's little point in recounting the "decision points" chapter and verse here since we all lived through them. What I can do is give an impression. I had supported President Bush, voted for him twice. I definitely bonded with him in the aftermath of 9/11. I was ultimately disappointed with his presidency on the whole, but I continue to like the man.

The one thing that becomes clear in Decision Points, and its no small thing, is that Bush is a very thoughtful man. He is neither the evil genius nor the blithering dunce he was alternately portrayed as in the hostile media. President Bush was acutely aware that his job was to make decisions on difficult and consequential matters. He took the job very seriously and not with some cliched shooting from the hip cowboy style.

Bush was profoundly affected by the events of 9/11 as you would imagine. Protecting the country from further attack became the central tenant of his presidency. In his every waking moment and I suspect even in his dreams he was waging a war on terrorism. Obviously this overshadowed everything else and the consequences of the actions the administration took to protect the nation cluttered everything inside the White House as well as inside the newsrooms.

The cacophony of dissent once the immediate shock of 9/11 wore off colored every single topic and poisoned the airwaves and headlines for the remainder of his term. He was determined to proceed on the course he had chosen, knowing quite well that it was going to have to be historians fifty years hence that would have final judgment on the decisions he made - including invading Iraq and taking out Saddam Hussein.

The other thing that come out in this memoir was that Bush did not hate his critics, he actually understood their vitriol. Much to the chagrin of his supporters he did not lash out at his attackers or defend himself from the scurrilous lies. This attitude I suspect was deep in his Texas heart and it was not in his nature to feel the need to defend his own honor. Did it serve him well? It's hard to say. Letting your worse critics define you without correcting the record now and then is a tough bet.

Even in his private life he continues to turn the other cheek. He is respecting a time honored tradition that former Presidents shall not criticize their successor - even as he endures his successor trashing his presidency at every turn. There is not one negative reference to President Obama or even President Clinton is this book. He makes it clear that in a 235 year old nation of hundreds of millions people that less than 50 men stood where he stood. Only a few people have ever had that unique understanding of what it took to be President of the United States. He is not about to make President Obama's job harder.

Decision Points was worth reading, but it probably won't change anyone's mind about the man or the President. I came away with the impression that Bush is an intelligent, thoughtful, honorable and yes, also a stubborn man. He made big decisions, some right, some wrong. He admits his mistakes openly and explains (rather than defends) the things he believes he got right.



CW

It's Bush's Fault

Hey, I'm just trying to be first.

Not to make light of the horrific tragedy that took place in Tuscon AZ on Saturday, but the drive-by media and their minions are already painting conservatism and conservatives as the guilty party in all of this.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has somehow miraculously survived a gunshot to the head. Several others were not as lucky. It is a senseless tragedy. The gunman Jared Lee Loughner is clearly deranged. The anti-gun left, so eager to pin this on Sarah Palin and conservatism, have wasted no time making such dubious links in public. It's not even known if this nut-burger has any particular political allegiances or influences.

Remember the massacre in Fort Hood, TX? Or, the murder at the Arkansas Army recruitment office that took place last year? Hard right conservatives got zero traction throwing multicultural tolerance up against the wall. These were hate crimes if you want to call them that, Muslim hatred for the American military, nonetheless few blamed liberalism or specific leftists. Why? Because it was ridiculous to do so. It's just as ridiculous to blame right-wingers and especially Sarah Palin for this. Sorry, but people can be convinced of anything if it is repeated enough. Lies and smears can be embedded far easier than they can be removed. When they find that there wasn't any connection whatsoever between Jared Loughner and any aspect of the conservative movement will that be remembered? Probably not.

God Bless Giffords and the other innocent souls, my heart breaks for them. Let's not go blaming the sky for the darkness...


CW