Saturday, September 19, 2009

When I'm Wrong - Boy am I Wrong

In June of 2007 - seems like a lifetime ago - anyway, I posted a short piece on the demise of the Federal deficit. I loudly proclaimed by April of 2008 the annual budget deficit would vanish thus giving the Democrats nothing to run on in the fall. It seemed like a safe bet at the time...

Had I known the housing bubble was going to burst (or possibly already had) and the cascading effect it would have on the not just the domestic economy but the global financial system I wouldn't have been so smug.

At the time it seemed that since the economy had been so robust and the war in Iraq had taken a turn for the better that the Democrats had nothing left to run on except that their nominee would not be Bush. I wasn't sure that was going to be enough. Regardless, I thought any GOPer would beat 'ol Hillary if there was no deficit to bark about. If I even had an inkling of what was to come I wouldn't have been so smug.

Oddly the warning signs were there all along and whether I just wasn't paying attention or the news media was unaware or willfully negligent in reporting the news of rising foreclosures and falling housing values I wouldn't have been so smug.

As 2008 unfolded the bottom had fallen out on the housing market. Since the entire rebirth of the economy after the dot com bust was based on housing it was going to be bad. I had no idea... When all the industries and services that fed the housing market began failing the cascade effect made it exponentially worse. To add insult to injury gasoline prices at the pump exceeded $4.00 a gallon further stunting consumer spending which is the life blood of any economy. By July when it looked like Barack "hopeandchange" Obama was going to be the nominee for the Democrats and was spewing his rhetoric about how he was going remake America traditional businessman prepared to hunker down and trim their operations. Had I imagined any of this back in June of 2007 I wouldn't have been so smug.

I am here to say - I WAS WRONG.